EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League

A couple of weeks back I demonstrated how the EI is more accurate than the bookies based on rank probability scores but a few people have asked if I can do something a bit simpler so Figure 1 shows how often the EI picked the winner as being the favourite compared with aggregated bookmaker’s odds. It’s pretty close but the EI seems to have a small but reasonably constant margin over the bookmaker so far this season.

Figure 1: EI Versus Bookmakers

Last week turned out to be a pretty good week with the EI managing to correctly predict the winner in eight out of the ten matches played. I’d made a few minor tweaks before posting last week’s odds to try and enhance the the way draws and away wins are calculated so hopefully the EI will be able to maintain its edge over the bookmakers.

Anyway, here are this week’s odds: