Effect of Season Length on Deciding the League Champion
In my previous article I looked at the interplay between luck and skill in determining the league champions. There is another parameter though that also interacts with luck and that is the structure of...
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Applying the Pythagorean Expectation to Football: Part One
The Baseball Pythagorean Expectation is a formula originally derived by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team could be expected to win over a season based on the number of runs they...
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Applying the Pythagorean Expectation to Football: Part Two
In my previous article, I discussed how to apply the baseball Pythagorean expectation to football and how to measure the error of the predictions using RMSE. This second article will demonstrate how to...
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Using the Pythagorean Expectation Across Leagues Wordwide
I showed in my last post that my initial version of the Pythagorean Expectation (MPE) predicted total points for the English Premier League (EPL) pretty well, with an RMSE of approximately four points...
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How Early In The Season Can Pythagorean Predictions Be Made?
The next stage for developing my refined version of the Pythagorean equation (known as the MPE) is to characterise how much data it actually needs to make accurate football predictions. To investigate...
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Predicting Football Matches Using Shot Data
Previously on this blog I have discussed my attempts at using the Poisson distribution to predict the number of goals scored in football matches. So far, the results have been disappointing as the...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
For a bit of fun, here is a trial run at predicting this weekend’s EPL matches using my EI ratings. I haven’t compared these with anyone else’s odds yet but they generally look about what I would have...
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EI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
A couple of weeks back I demonstrated how the EI is more accurate than the bookies based on rank probability scores but a few people have asked if I can do something a bit simpler so Figure 1 shows how...
View ArticleEI Match Predictions for the English Premier League
Here we go with this week’s predictions from the Eastwood Index (EI)! The EI doesn’t hold out much chance for Wigan or West Ham getting three points off the two Manchester clubs this week, with the...
View ArticleEI Match Probabilities for the English Premier League
It’s Friday again so here are this weekend’s match probabilities for the English Premier League. I was a little surprised to see Manchester United come out as favourites against Arsenal, even they they...
View ArticleAnalysing Football Teams Using Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis
The amount of football data available is growing rapidly – with every passing week of the season more matches are played and even more data gets collected. This is great as it allows us to increase our...
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EPL 2013/2014: Football Pythagorean So Far
Between work, life, kids etc it’s been a while since I posted much on my blog here but I managed to grab a little free time so I thought I’d add a post about how my football Pythagorean was looking for...
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English Premier League Pythagorean Update
I’ve not posted an update on the Pythagorean for the English Premier League (EPL) for a while so the latest figures are below. Football Pythagorean In case you haven’t seen it before, my football...
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English Premier League Pythagorean
I’ve not posted this for a while so here is the latest Pythagorean for the English Premier League. Football Pythagorean If you’ve seen this before, it’s an adaptation of the baseball Pythagorean that...
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Massey Ratings For Football Part One
Introduction We all know the league table can lie and one of the common causes of this is strength of schedule. Take Southampton, at the time of writing they are currently second in the Premier League...
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Massey Ratings For Football Part Two
Introduction In part one I introduced Massey Ratings and how they can be used to rank football teams in a way that accounts for their strength of schedule. Next, we’ll take a look at how Massey Ratings...
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